How many permanent migrants came to NZ since 1957? Go on, guess!

July 5, 2009 by Hubby
Filed under: Getting to New Zealand, Hubby's Views, NZIS & Immigration issues 

In the whole hullabloo about the OAG’s report and the Visa Scam there were two very interesting numbers mentioned in a TVNZ interview, which piqued my interest.

The immigration minister was quoted as saying that ‘over stayers’ only account for 0.08% of all immigrants.

NZIS were quoted as saying that ‘over stayers’  numbered approximately 16,000.  They weren’t really too sure, but felt comfortable (!) with that number.

These two numbers weren’t put together in the same place other than the TVNZ website, which provided some discussion around the interview.

So, if 16,000 represents 0.08% of all emigrants – then to misquote an Aussie tourism ad “where the bloody hell are they all?”

That  would make total emigration to NZ at a whopping 20,000,000 – yep – Twenty Million!

I figured that can’t make sense, can it? someone must have their figures mixed up somewhere.  Perhaps the immigration minister has misplaced a decimal point somewhere {and put 20m people in the country instead of 2m say}.

So I went hunting for the real numbers to try and figure it all out, and I wasn’t that far off.

Statistics NZ (the home of all good & bad Govt. numbers) proved to be our friend.  The numbers I could find only go as recent as 2007 , but do go as far back as 1957.    ”Tourism & Migration 2007” with the particularly interesting information being in “Table 1.01 Arrivals & Departures by class” [I find it always helps to cite the original sources, and saves me hunting around for hours to find where I got the info from originally when I need to refer back]

So what does this table tell us?

It shows the annual number of short term (visitor) and long term (12 months+ & permanent) arrivals and departures to and from the land of the long white cloud.

So where are the Ministers 20m emigrants?  Or his 16,000 overstayers?

  • Well, it’s not the total short term arrivals, that’s 41.240m.
  • Short term departures? Nope that’s 41.059m – opps’!  lost 181,000 people there, but that could include people who came for less than 12 months, and decided (legally or otherwise) to stay longer.
  • It’s not the permanent arrivals, that’s 2.567m.
  • It’s not the permanent departures, that’s 2.356m

HOLD ON!

Since 1957 NZIS has managed to persuade only 2.567m, less 2.356m people to come to NZ permanently? Now, I accept the whole thing about Kiwi’s moving away on their OE and so on.  And there are also plenty of migrants who find that NZ isn’t quite for them once they get here.

Seriously though, that’s a very unwhopping 211,000 people that NZIS have added to the population.  In 50 years.  The quota for this year is 50,000 alone.

Crikey – I’d hate to look at a cost/benefit analysis for how efficient and productive that makes NZIS.  Or how much investment or benefit they have managed to produce for the NZ economy by bringing in all those migrants.

Wow.

So anyhow, where’s the 20m?  Well, we can’t really tell.  And with rounding of the numbers by StatsNZ you could easily lose 10,000 or so people after a few years figures anyhow.  Just as NZIS seem to have ‘misplaced’ 16,000 overstayers.

Related posts:

  1. How many Migrants leave New Zealand?
  2. An interesting Immigration report – part 2
  3. Emigration myths & vitriol
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Comments

4 Comments on How many permanent migrants came to NZ since 1957? Go on, guess!

  1. Cheri on Sun, 5th Jul 2009 4:37 pm

    2. Guessing before I read…200k?
    OMG I’m good! That’s averaging 10k people per year 2000-2009, then 5k a year 1970-1990, and the last 20 in years 1950-1970. Just what I ‘felt’.

  2. William Knight on Sun, 5th Jul 2009 9:56 pm

    3. Interesting.

    Have you gone back to check population figures during the same period to see if there are any mistakes anywhere else?

    I seem to remember the population was only just over 3milion about 15 years ago and has risen to closer to 4m.

    Is that memory incorrect?

    If your working is right, it should be put in front of the immigration minister or the Dim Post at least!

  3. Hubby on Sun, 5th Jul 2009 10:16 pm

    4. Hi William
    I’ve not looked at the Stats for population, I know the StatsNZ population clock is about 4.3m these days, and there was a big deal some years ago when it went past 4m for the first time. It was only 3.7m at the 2001 census.

    I don’t know if the stats would be detailed enough to differentiate between emigrants and ‘born & bred’ Kiwi’s.
    Either way, major population growth isn’t through new emigrants. Although the Stats population clock does estimate a net increase of one person per hour (approx) due to net migration.
    =24 per day, =8760 per year ~=438,000 in 50 years..

  4. Avalon on Mon, 6th Jul 2009 11:44 am

    5. It does make me wonder just how much Kiwis have spent on the immigration department. I know that I think they are waste of space – but if these numbers really are true – Im not sure that many of the Kiwis I know would be too impressed with the Return on Investment.

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