Are we going to have 11% unemployment in New Zealand?
Filed under: Jobs & Work, Life in New Zealand, Retirement, Pensions and Kiwisaver
Apparently the New Zealand Institute has prepared documents telling our Prime Minister that unemployment could rise to 11%. So – the question you need to ask is: what have they based this on??? “New research published in the United States last month on recessions originating in financial crises.”
So – not based on anything concrete about New Zealand then??? But I guess its comforting to know that the very brainy people in this “Think Tank” have arbitrarily decided that we have no choice but to follow the US on it’s downward spiral. Apparently they did “extrapolate” the figures to New Zealand. Well, that’s OK then!
I wonder if the very brainy people in the “Think Tank” understand the differences between a country with 4million people in it, and a country with 250 million in it?
Now – I’m not saying that New Zealand won’t have 11% unemployment. But for crying out loud – if we are going to have Think Tanks getting everyone in a panic – could it please be over something a bit more accurate than “Because the US has it”!
So – what is the story with Unemployment in New Zealand right now?
Well, according to Stats NZ – which is a really interesting place to get the real numbers from: Unemployment is up. It hit 4.6% by the end of 2008. This was an increase from a low of 3.7% in 2006 and 2007.
Now – the really interesting thing is that until 2004 – the unemployment rate didn’t drop to less that 4.5% anyway. So although it is not great sailing at the moment – it is not quite time to be throwing ourselves over the edge just yet. According to the yearly figures at Stats NZ – in 1995 – unemployment was 10.6% – so it is possible to reach those levels. But the figures also show that the past four years have been unusual in the low rate of unemployment, with figures steadily coming down over 15 years, and now its just going back up.
If you compare the current 4.6% with 3.7% – it looks a bit bad. But did you know what if you average out the unemployment percentages over the past 15 years – its 6.8%??? So maybe 4.6% isn’t actually that bad.
In fact – we discussed this earlier – as Hubby found a graph that makes the situation look dire:
And I said – that couldn’t be right – because it didn’t match the figures on Stats NZ. Here is a graph we made using the figures going back before the record low unemployment rates:
Doesn’t look half as bad now- does it?
It’s bad for the extra people that lose their jobs of course – but I really think its worth taking a moment to understand that a lot more people were unemployed in the 13 years up to 2005 than are unemployed now.
Don’t Panic.
Just because the papers tell you it’s all going to hell in a hand basket – it doesn’t actually mean that it is.
Related posts:
- The Coffee and Cake Jobs Summit.
- Emigrate to New Zealand to escape Climate Change?
- What do you do just in case things do go to hell in a hand basket?
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